The mobile phones of 2000 seem pre-historic in comparison with the modern smartphones of 2009. 10 years ago we had 2G phones, which enabled voice calls and SMS with limited interoperability between different networks. They had a small monochrome display which was capable of displaying few lines of text and simple graphics. They had few built-in applications, such as an alarm clock, calculator and primitive games (Snake!). These applications were provided by the device manufacturer and there was no way in which 3^rd party developers could develop apps for these phones. Personal Device Assistant (PDA) represented a different class of mobile devices in those years. The popular PDAs, running operating systems such as Palm OS and Windows CE, offered an SDK for application developers. However, these devices were not connected to a wireless network, so the applications were bound to an off-line mode. During the course of the following years, mobile phones and PDAs have converged into smartphones.

In November 2000, Ericsson R380, the first Symbian phone was released. However, this phone was not open for 3^rd party application developers. In the same year, Nokia introduced the 9210 Communicator. It was running Symbian OS 6.0 and was one of the first smartphones with an open operating system.

In 2001, another major breakthrough occurred with the announcement of the first GPRS phones. GPRS, a 2.5G cellular network technology, introduced packet switched data over GSM. It enabled mobile applications to access the internet through the cellular network. The first connected application was the WAP Browser, which initially provided limited access to the Internet, mostly within the walled garden of the operator.

In the same year, the first mobile phones with MIDP 1.0 were announced. These phones had a built-in Java Micro Edition (J2ME) run-time environment that enabled the development and deployment of applications for mass-market mobile phones. This technology changed the rules of mobile applications development, as developers no longer needed tight relationship with device manufacturers. The first deployments of J2ME-enabled phones were by non-GSM operators such as LG Telecom, NTT DoCoMo and Nextel. The first GSM phones with MIDP 1.0 included devices such as Motorola Accompli 008 and Siemens SL45i.

In 2002, Nokia introduced the first S60 phone, the 7650. This phone included new features that were not seen in the GSM market before, such as color display, VGA camera and MMS. It supported native application development with the S60 SDK as well as J2ME applications. In the same year, RIM introduced the Blackberry 5810. This was the first Blackberry device for GSM/GPRS networks. Originally a two-way pager, this device has evolved into a smartphone and quickly gained popularity, especially in the business sector. Another smartphone platform that has emerged at the same time was Microsoft’s Windows Mobile OS with the introduction of Orange SPV that was manufactured by HTC. This phone was running Microsoft Smartphone 2002, which was based on the Windows CE core and featured a removable SD card. Another platform that debuted in 2002 was Qualcomm’s BREW, which enabled the development of applications for BREW-enabled devices, mostly in the CDMA market.

In 2003, J2ME has been adopted by all major device manufacturers, while many mobile phones with MIDP 1.0 were introduced, especially in the GSM market. In the same year, mass market commercial 3G services were introduced, and enabled a wide range of mobile applications.

In 2004, J2ME has been upgraded with the introduction of MIDP 2.0. This was a major step forward, which opened new possibilities for application developers. One of the first phones that supported MIDP 2.0 was Motorola V600. In the same year, the first cellular phones with WiFi support were introduced. One of these phones was HTC Blue Angel that was released under several brand names.

In 2005, Motorola released the RAZR V3, the popular clamshell phone that sold more than 110 million units over the RAZR’s four-year run, and brought Motorola to second place in the mobile phone market behind Nokia. Unfortunately, Motorola failed to repeat this success and lost its market share dramatically during 2008.

In 2006, 67% of all smartphones shipped worldwide were running the Symbian OS, and most of them were Nokia’s S60 phones. In the same year, Nokia announced the N95, which became extremely popular since its release in 2007.

In 2007, Apple released the iPhone, and sold 6.1 million units over five quarters. Although these numbers are relatively small, the iPhone started a trend with its revolutionary multi-touch UI and swept the entire market. The iPhone SDK was officially announced in 2008, and allowed developers to develop native applications for the iPhone and iPod Touch. Apple has redefined the value chain by creating the App Store and allowing developers to easily sell their applications directly to end-users without the mediation of operators. The application gold rush has begun as the number of apps in Apple’s app store grew rapidly, which led to the launch of many other application stores.

In 2008, Google entered the arena with its open-source, Linux-based OS for mobile devices – Android. Unlike Apple, Google released the Android SDK to developers before the first device was shipped. Google also launched the Android Market for distributing Android apps. The first Android phone was T-Mobile G1, which was manufactured by HTC. Many other manufacturers jumped on the bandwagon and announced Android devices, including Samsung, Motorola, LG and Sony Ericsson. Although Nokia reached a market share record of 40% during 2008, its dominance in the smartphone market was in jeopardy. In an attempt to challenge Android, Nokia acquired 100% of Symbian shares and announced the open Symbian Foundation.

In 2009 Palm made a comeback with the Pre, running the new Linux-based OS, webOS (not be mistaken with the old Palm OS). Nokia probably realized that Symbian is not attractive enough, and released the N900, running the Linux-based Maemo OS. Samsung joined the Linux camp by releasing two Linux Mobile (LiMo) phones for Vodafone. Samsung that supported numerous smartphone platforms eventually decided that it needs its own proprietary platform and announced bada, yet another open mobile platform…

As the decade ends, we are witnessing an increasing number of smartphones running on many different platforms. Time will tell which of these platforms will prevail.

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Meanwhile, Nokia’s share of the smartphone market reached an all time low in the 3Q09 at 39%, compared with 45% in 2Q09. This caused the Symbian OS to lose ground too, while RIM reached 20% share, its highest yet.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users in 3Q09

In the smartphone OS market, Symbian finished first with 44.6%, while RIM’s BlackBerry OS finished second with 20.8%, and the iPhone finished third with 17.1%. Android picked up momentum but with only a handful of Android devices available, its share remained modest at 3.5%. Sales of smartphones running the Window Mobile OS declined by 20% to 7.9% of the total smartphone OS market in the third quarter.

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Apple introduced in-app microstransactions for premium apps in March–developers can market new levels in an iPhone game, additional chapters or books in an ebook app or new tools in productivity apps. However, that meant pricing apps at a minimum of 99 cents.

Developers say that the latest announcement helps in two ways. First, it makes it much easier for them to make a business out of free apps. Until now, developers sold ads within their free apps or tried to convert users to a paid version with more content. The new capability could also help clean up the App Store because it would make it less necessary to offer both a free “lite” version and a paid version of the same app, a strategy that many developers used to try to make money.

Source: Wall Street Journal

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1. Develop fast, release often (i.e. Agile)
2. Make sure the price is right
3. Use an attractive icon and app name
4. Partner with other indie developers
5. Hiring a dedicated PR team or firm for the App Store is probably not worth it
6. BONUS tip: Get sponsored by Apple.

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Worldwide Mobile Terminal Sales to End Users in 2Q09 (Thousands of Units)

Note: This table includes iDEN shipments but excludes ODM-to-OEM shipments.
Source: Gartner (August 2009)

Nokia maintained its leadership position, but its portfolio remained heavily skewed toward low-end devices. Its flagship high-end N97 smartphone met little enthusiasm at its launch in the second quarter of 2009 and has sold just 500,000 units in the channel since it started to ship in June, compared to Apple’s iPhone 3G S, which sold 1 million units in its first weekend.

Samsung and LG both had a very strong second quarter of 2009 with sales of 55 million units and 30.5 million units, respectively. Samsung’s touchscreen devices, qwerty phones and smartphones drove sales in mature markets, and Gartner expects it will continue to gain market share in the second half of 2009 to close the gap with Nokia. Gartner expects LG to keep moving into lower-tier devices to drive growth in emerging markets and be well-positioned to take advantage of China’s 3G rollout as it can deliver good-value-for-money devices. Motorola’s sales of 15.9 million units were slightly better than expected, but its presence has rapidly concentrated on the Americas, and it has lost most of its share of the Western European market, where it sold fewer than 1 million units in the second quarter of 2009. Most operators and customers will be waiting for Motorola’s new Android-based products planned for the fourth quarter of 2009.

Sony Ericsson’s market share dropped 2.8% points year-on-year in the second quarter of 2009 but its volume dropped 41%. Although the market environment was challenging, Gartner attributes Sony Ericsson’s poor performance to its uncompetitive range of handsets.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users in 2Q09 (Thousands of Units)

Note: For HTC, Gartner counts only the company’s own-branded devices, including the G1.
Note: Totals may not add to 100.0 percent due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (August 2009)

In the smartphone OS market, Symbian held 51% share, down from 57% a year ago, while RIM and Apple grew their shares year-on-year. Android’s share was just under 2% of the market and more Android-based devices will come to market in the fourth quarter of 2009, intensifying competition in the smartphone OS market, particularly for Symbian and Windows Mobile. Microsoft’s share continued to drop year-on-year to account for 9% of the market in the second quarter of 2009.

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Apple just released to the iPhone developers community the iPhone OS 3.1 Beta 3 as well as a new version of the iPhone SDK 3.1, Beta 3.

Both downloads are available to registered developers through the Apple iPhone Dev Center.

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Generator Research seems to ignore other players and platforms in the smartphone market, such as RIM/Blcakberry, Microsoft/WinMo, Google/Android and Palm/WebOS.

Global Smartphone Market Prediction

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